Falsifiable stakes, graded automatically. Each prediction is minted with its resolution date fixed — up or down at the print, or beats the index over 1–3 months — and resolves against closing prices with no re-litigation. The stance ledger below grades every recorded call the same way.
| Minted | Ticker | The claim | Conv | Resolves | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19 | NTDOY | beats SPY over 3mo | 3 | Oct 19 | The 'is ~11% sizing earned' falsifiable proxy on the #1 position: 8/06 print's 16.5M-unit sandbag beat + Sept hardware hike offsetting memory cost (the defined ADD trigger) plays out over the quarter, not the print night. SPY benchmark (non-tech comp for a JP consumer name). |
| Jul 20 | RDDT | beats QQQ over 3mo | 2 | Oct 20 | Beat-index half of JGC-411 (Sean 7/19). The alpha-basket 3mo-DRIFT stake, deliberately distinct from earnings-direction #112: the edge is the drift, not the print-night sign — Yipit-Q3 corroboration (momentum carries past the 7/30 print, the NTDOY quarter-shape), rising rate-of-change estimate revisions (BofA $180->$210, WF floor $176->$187, Needham $300 Conviction-Buy = a robust multi-month alpha factor pointing UP), + the #124 sizing-fork resolution over the quarter. Cheapest-growth in the basket (P/E/G 0.6, -36% off 52w high) blunts the de-rate tail. LOW CONVICTION (2) by design: beta amplification (~2-3x QQQ) is the dominant un-edged variance and print-independent Advance/Tencent supply overhang can cap the name regardless — adversarially verified as a ~53-55% lean, NOT a coin-flip (survives-thinly). QQQ = small-in-index/non-self-referential. 3mo-ONLY: a 1mo beat-index would be a levered duplicate of #112 (print-dominated). Alpha-basket AXON + DASH abstained (documented edge-grounds, not date). |
| Kind | Right | Total | Hit rate | Avg alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beats index (1mo) | 0 | 1 | 0% | -3.6% |
| Earnings direction | 3 | 7 | 43% | — |
| Resolved | Ticker | The claim | Outcome | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19 | GOOGL | beats QQQ over 1mo | -3.6% | wrong |
315 graded (68 right · 103 wrong · 144 neutral) — 40% of decided calls right · 29 open
| Called | Ticker | Call | Outcome | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22 | NTDOY | thesis-change · HOLD | +2.7% | neutral |
| Aug 19 | INTC | red-flag · HOLD | -9.5% | wrong |
| Aug 19 | NVDA | red-flag | 0.0% | neutral |
| Aug 19 | LGN |
| Jul 31 | AMZN | UP on earnings | +15.3% | right |
| Jul 31 | RDDT | UP on earnings | -21.0% | wrong |
| Jul 30 | META | DOWN on earnings | +8.0% | right |
| Jul 30 | MSFT | UP on earnings | +15.5% | right |
| Jul 28 | SPGI | UP on earnings | -3.5% | wrong |
| Jul 24 | FIX | UP on earnings | -5.3% | wrong |
| Jul 23 | GOOGL | UP on earnings | -7.1% | wrong |
| stance · HOLD |
| -10.1% |
| wrong |
| Aug 19 | GOOGL | red-flag | 0.0% | neutral |
| Aug 19 | GOOGL | stance · HOLD | +1.0% | neutral |
| Aug 19 | AVGO | thesis-change · AVOID | +0.5% | neutral |
| Aug 19 | MRVL | stance · PASS | -4.6% | wrong |
| Aug 19 | AVGO | new-idea · RESEARCH | 0.0% | neutral |
| Aug 19 | MRVL | red-flag · AVOID | -11.3% | wrong |
| Aug 19 | STX | stance · HOLD | -9.1% | wrong |
| Aug 19 | AKAM | stance · HOLD | -8.2% | wrong |
| Aug 19 | AMZN | thesis-change | 0.0% | neutral |
| Aug 18 | WING | red-flag · WATCH | 0.0% | neutral |
| Aug 18 | WDAY | stance · PASS | -4.2% | wrong |
| Aug 18 | MRVL | stance · AVOID | +2.2% | neutral |
| Aug 18 | QCOM | stance · EXIT | -0.3% | neutral |
| Aug 18 | NVDA | stance · HOLD | -5.1% | wrong |
| Aug 18 | NTDOY | thesis-change · HOLD | +0.7% | neutral |
| Aug 18 | IESC | red-flag · HOLD | -11.8% | wrong |
